02184nas a2200169   4500000000100000008004100001653002400042653001200066100001600078700001500094700001500109245004700124300001200171490000700183050000600190520181800196       2005                            d10aPeer Reviewed Paper10aChecked1 aHerbert Rob1 aStewart M.1 aHancock M.00aPrediction of outcome after ankle fracture  a786-7920 v35  aN3 a<p>
STUDY DESIGN: Prospective inception cohort study of 62 consecutive patients seen in 2 orthopaedic clinics following ankle fracture. OBJECTIVES: To investigate 4 putative predictors (age, fracture classification, acute management [surgical or nonsurgical], and ankle dorsiflexion range of motion measured at the time of cast removal) of outcome after ankle fracture and to develop simple predictive models of outcome after ankle fracture. BACKGROUND: Ankle fracture is a common condition. However, few studies have investigated factors that predict outcome after ankle fracture. METHODS AND MEASURES: Sixty-two consecutive subjects aged 17 or older with ankle fractures were recruited from 2 hospital orthopaedic clinics. Outcome measures recorded at 6 weeks and 6 months after cast removal included 2 functional questionnaires, patients' ratings of global improvement, and a measure of ankle dorsiflexion. The predictive value of 4 variables selected a priori was analyzed using bivariate and stepwise multiple linear regression. RESULTS: Ankle dorsiflexion and fracture classification predicted outcome 6 weeks and 6 months after cast removal for all outcome measures used (P &lt; .05, r2 = 0.09-0.47). Fracture management (surgical or nonsurgical) inconsistently predicted outcome at both 6 weeks and 6 months, and age did not predict outcome at either 6 weeks or 6 months after cast removal. The predictive models explain between 19% and 58% of the variance in outcomes 6 weeks after cast removal and 19% to 52% of the variance in outcomes 6 months after cast removal. CONCLUSION: Ankle dorsiflexion measured at the time of cast removal and fracture classification are clinically significant predictors of outcome after ankle fracture; however, much unexplained variation in outcomes still exists.
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