02175nas a2200169   4500000000100000008004100001100001600042700002100058700001800079700001900097700001900116700001700135245006200152300000900214520176800223022001401991       2017                            d1 aMaher Chris1 ada Silva Tatiane1 aMills Kathryn1 aBrown Benjamin1 aHerbert Robert1 aHancock Mark00aRisk of Recurrence of Low Back Pain: A Systematic Review.  a1-273 a<p>
Study Design Systematic review. Background While most people with acute low back pain (LBP) recover quickly, recurrences are believed to be common. No high quality systematic review has been published on the risk of recurrences of LBP, or of factors which predict LBP recurrence. Objectives The aim of this study was to investigate the risk of and prognostic factors for a recurrence of LBP, in patients who have recovered from a previous episode of LBP within the last year. Methods Systematic searches were conducted of MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL databases. We included longitudinal studies of adults who had recovered from a previous episode of LBP within 12 months. The primary outcome was a new episode of LBP. Secondary outcomes were other types of recurrence (e.g. episodes causing care seeking). Results Eight studies were included in the review: seven observational studies and one randomized trial (two publications). Six studies reported recurrence proportions for the primary outcome of an episode of LBP. Meta-analysis was not conducted due to the low quality and heterogeneity of studies. Only one study was considered an inception cohort study; it reported a one year recurrence proportion of 33%. A history of previous episodes of LBP prior to the most recent episode was the only factor that consistently predicted recurrence of LBP. Conclusion The available research does not provide robust estimates of the risk of LBP recurrence and provides little information about factors that predict recurrence in people recently recovered from an episode of LBP. Level of Evidence Prognosis, 1a-. Prospectively registered in PROSPERO 9 February, 2016 (CRD42016030220).J Orthop Sports Phys Ther, Epub 29 Mar 2017. doi:10.2519/jospt.2017.7415.
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